18
Jul
11

Waiting for new opportunities..

July series has been one of my best till date return wise. ONGC and Sun TV panned out as expected. Premiums have come down to near zero levels and I have started covering my positions.

I have started looking forward to August series. It should be much more challenging than July series.  I am waiting for some event or trigger point to happen so that I can start initiating trades for next series. Given the problems around Euro-zone, it makes sense to wait for favorable risk reward ratio rather than chase events. In case Mr. Maran is named in CBI charge sheet for 2G scam, Sun TV might have one more down move. It should be an opportunity. If one of the biggies announce poor results, that should also be an opportunity to write some options.

I wish HDFC had announced poor Q1 results. But results were good along the expected lines. I don’t know how do they manage it, but they have consistently delivering 20-25% growth for past 30 quarters. HDFC has become the benchmark of consistency in Indian markets. Almost every FII or DII has exposure in HDFC. In case of poor results, HDFC would have provided good opportunity in terms of writing options. Reliance Industries is trending downwards and is currently trading around 870 something. Lot of issues like gas output, CAG adverse report and more importantly lack of clarity has hampered RIL stock. In case cabinet approves RIL-BP deal, RIL stock should see 5-6 percent positive reaction. As of now, its difficult to write both calls and puts in RIL. ONGC will come out with FPO in september, with or without clarity on subsidy sharing formula. I am not sure if without clarity on subsidy sharing, ONGC would get a price of more than 240-250. But deferred FPO should throw up some opportunity in August series. Infosys came out again in Q1 with sub-par results. I think more than Q1 results, not scaling up of Annual guidance spooked the markets. In contrast TCS Q1 results were above market expectations. Both Infosys and TCS present opportunity in OTM calls. I need to track result season carefully for next trading idea.

(Yesterday while booking tickets for Zindagi na milegi dobara, I felt very happy while seeing seats full tag. As a shareholder of Eros International, I have every reason to be happy. I will watch the movie today. If you have not seen the movie till now, please go and watch it.)

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