02
Jan
12

Happy New Year..

Happy New Year to everyone. Hope 2012 brings in some sanity in equity markets after 2nd worst performing year in last two decades. Last year brought in lot of negatives from Euro zone countries and more so from our own government. India’s fiscal deficit for current financial year is all set to exceed its budgeted estimates of 4.6%. But 2011 has been such a bad year that 2012 might turn out to be positive year for equities. ECB might finally relent and buy european countries bonds in a big way. Expectations are also so low from Indian government that some action on reform front might act as signal and trigger decent rally.

One of the biggest positive that almost everyone is negative on markets and it always happens that market surprises everyone on opposite side. I remember in 2011 also lot of analysts used to say second half of the year should turn out to be better than first half. In fact, markets went into tailspin in second half. For 2012 also there are similar kind of predictions that 1st quarter will be bad and later part of year should be better. I made money in 2011 by selling OTM calls, but selective stocks and market in general has come down to such levels that I am little bit cautious on selling calls now.

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