October series for USDINR currency options will expire on Monday. If nothing unexpected happens on Monday, I expect all my sold call & put options to expire worthless. Sold call options strike ranged from 55.5-58 and sold put options ranged from 50-51.5. Call options sold were naked options but put options were ratio spreads (For every bought 52 put, I had sold 10 lots of 50-51.5 puts).
November series should be tough as compared to October series. It is one of the longest series of the year in terms of number of days. There are a lot of important events in November, which if panned out adversely can put pressure on Rupee. Euro has come down from high of 1.32 to 1.29 in recent weeks. On 31st October, RBI will announce its decision on policy rate cut. RBI is under lot of pressure from the Government and Industry to reduce policy rates. 25 bps CRR cut is at least expected from RBI but repo rate cut will boost Rupee.
US markets have been correcting recently on account of below par quarterly results. After US presidential elections in first week of November, focus will shift to safe resolution of fiscal cliff issue. There might be some be some political posturing and dithering on the issue, but eventually it will pass. More the issue lingers on, world markets will be nervous.
Some more positive action from government on policy front issue will be positive for markets. Passage of NIB (National Investment Board – single window clearance for mega projects mooted by PM) will be big positive in that light. Winter session of parliament will also start in November and I don’t expect anything meaningful from that. This session should pan out more or less in similar manner as last session.
Given all this I have started selling OTM calls for November series. I don’t expect big crack in Rupee on downside. It seems that RBI has bought some dollars around 52 levels in October (http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/rupee/rbibuysdollarat52_774013.html). I haven’t sold any puts till now. It’s wait and watch approach on put side.