January series for currency option expired on 29th January. My sold 57 calls expired worthless (https://writingoptions.wordpress.com/2012/12/28/currency-options-usdinr-january-series/). INR has appreciated since the start of February series on the back of consistent FII inflows. Globally also there is risk-on rally going on currently. I am a bit skeptical about the INR rally beyond 53 levels. RBI has increased FII debt limit by $5 billion each in certain debt instruments. Total of $ 10 billion is expected to flow in Indian debt market. This might result in some amount of appreciation in INR. But I don’t expect INR to appreciate beyond 52 levels on account of high current account deficit (CAD) numbers. Brent crude oil has also slowly and gradually moved to levels of $118/barrel. February series has an important event in terms Union Budget to be presented on 28th February. Technically, it is after the expiry of February series on 26th Feb, so it should impact March series. Good budget on fiscal front should result in some FII inflows and INR appreciation.
I sold a few 52 puts and 57 calls for February series. I have squared off 57 calls but 52 puts are still open. I am looking to rollover my sold puts to March series on any INR appreciation.
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