Posts Tagged ‘Infosys

12
Jan
12

Infosys flat Q4 guidance drag stock sharply down

Infosys declared its Q3 FY12 results today. As expected, results were good on account of Rupee depreciation. Its Q3 revenues were Rs 9298 crore and Q3 bottom-line was Rs 2372 crore. EPS for Q3 was 41.51  versus 38.51-39.2 guidance. EBIT margins were 31.17% versus 28.16% for Q2. Overall Q3 numbers were good on most parameters. Q3 performance allowed the IT giant to increase FY12 EPS guidance to Rs 147.13 versus Rs 143.02-145.26 earlier.

Key problem was with the FY12 dollar revenue guidance to 16.4% versus 17.1 -19.1% growth earlier guidance. This guidance factors in flat Q4 revenue growth QoQ. It looks like Infosys management has given extremely conservative guidance to tone down market bullish expectations. But it acted as big dampener and stock closed down 8.4%. It will take some time for Infosys stock to stabilize and move higher. I was active today in selling OTM calls. If stock falls sharply further from these levels then I would be a buyer.

18
Jul
11

Waiting for new opportunities..

July series has been one of my best till date return wise. ONGC and Sun TV panned out as expected. Premiums have come down to near zero levels and I have started covering my positions.

I have started looking forward to August series. It should be much more challenging than July series.  I am waiting for some event or trigger point to happen so that I can start initiating trades for next series. Given the problems around Euro-zone, it makes sense to wait for favorable risk reward ratio rather than chase events. In case Mr. Maran is named in CBI charge sheet for 2G scam, Sun TV might have one more down move. It should be an opportunity. If one of the biggies announce poor results, that should also be an opportunity to write some options.

I wish HDFC had announced poor Q1 results. But results were good along the expected lines. I don’t know how do they manage it, but they have consistently delivering 20-25% growth for past 30 quarters. HDFC has become the benchmark of consistency in Indian markets. Almost every FII or DII has exposure in HDFC. In case of poor results, HDFC would have provided good opportunity in terms of writing options. Reliance Industries is trending downwards and is currently trading around 870 something. Lot of issues like gas output, CAG adverse report and more importantly lack of clarity has hampered RIL stock. In case cabinet approves RIL-BP deal, RIL stock should see 5-6 percent positive reaction. As of now, its difficult to write both calls and puts in RIL. ONGC will come out with FPO in september, with or without clarity on subsidy sharing formula. I am not sure if without clarity on subsidy sharing, ONGC would get a price of more than 240-250. But deferred FPO should throw up some opportunity in August series. Infosys came out again in Q1 with sub-par results. I think more than Q1 results, not scaling up of Annual guidance spooked the markets. In contrast TCS Q1 results were above market expectations. Both Infosys and TCS present opportunity in OTM calls. I need to track result season carefully for next trading idea.

(Yesterday while booking tickets for Zindagi na milegi dobara, I felt very happy while seeing seats full tag. As a shareholder of Eros International, I have every reason to be happy. I will watch the movie today. If you have not seen the movie till now, please go and watch it.)

04
Jun
11

First post

I have been writing options for quite some time. Writing or selling options is quite risky since your gains are limited to premium collected while your loss is unlimited, as shown by the black swan event like 2008 market crash across the world. As option writer, one stands to benefit from Implied Volatility(IV) and Time decay. IV as implied by the option premium, is the rate and magnitude of change in underlying prices. Time decay says that if underlying does not move much then, option will expire worthless (represented by greek theta). Anyways, options are wasting assets and their value declines over time.

Trading in options has increased significantly in Indian markets over last year and this is reflected in falling margins of major brokerage houses. Within option segment, Index options attract majority of volumes.

If you think market or stocks will remain range bound over extended period of time then, option writing is the way to go. Normally, I write Out of Money(OTM) Calls on individual stocks and rarely OTM Puts. First of all, I identify stocks which have announced either poor results or affected by any new development or major event which will impact their business significantly. Usually, these stocks take some time to recover and you stand to benefit from time decay. For e.g. – Infosys announced its Q4, 2011 results in April this year and market didn’t like its performance which was evident in stock reaction that fell 7 odd percentage. One could have easily sold its OTM Calls at 3300 or 3200 strike price and made quite a bit of money. Given the kind of selling which Infosys witnessed on huge volumes, it was extremely difficult for Infosys to go back and test 3200-3300 levels. I sold one 3300 Call for May series which was trading at Rs 19 that time. Writing options usually involve some kind of margin commitment and hence you calculate returns on margin provided. My returns on writing Infosys call were 4.59% in 18 days, which is quite decent by any standard.

Over next several posts, I will keep giving examples of trades which I have executed or about to execute. I believe, writing options if done sensibly can yield 25% annualized returns.




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